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The Habs will have to wait a while for Patrik Laine to make his official debut with the team but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth being picked in most fantasy leagues.
2023-24
After narrowly missing out on averaging a point per game for the second straight year, expectations were certainly high heading into last season. The Blue Jackets were in a bit of disarray following their second coaching change after Mike Babcock was replaced by Pascal Vincent before training camp even started which didn’t help things. But hey, a near-point-per-game winger (when healthy) is still a strong foundational piece to start building from, right?
It didn’t work out that way. Laine languished under Vincent and his ice time dropped sharply by nearly four minutes per game when he was in the lineup. And even that wasn’t a guarantee as he was healthy scratched in an effort to shake things up. They attempted to play him down the middle at times as well which probably didn’t help things from a confidence perspective.
Of course, you probably know what happened from there. Laine sustained a shoulder injury in mid-December, sidelining him for at least six weeks. During that stretch, he entered the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and didn’t return for the rest of the season.
Stats: 18 GP, 6-3-9, -10, 6 PIMS, 1 PPG, 0 GWG, 41 shots, 15:13 ATOI
5 Year Averages
(Stats for 2020-21 and 2021-22 are extrapolated to an 82-game rate.)
GP: 55
Goals: 21
Assists: 24
Points: 45
+/-: -12
PIMS: 22
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 155
2024-25 Role
Prior to his injury in the second preseason game, we had a pretty good idea of where Laine was going to line up, at least to start. At even strength, he was going to play on the second line with Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook. Martin St. Louis seems hesitant to break up the top line even with Laine’s injury so it stands to reason that there’s a good chance Laine will be earmarked to return to the second line whenever he’s cleared to return.
Early in his career, Laine was a significant power play threat but that waned in Columbus with only 38 of his 138 points coming with the man advantage. Not surprisingly then, Laine looked like he was heading toward being the shooter on the second unit over being part of the top one. With Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield in the shooting roles there, he’d have to displace one of them as having three shooters might be a bit redundant. That said, if the power play has the same level of success as in recent years (in other words, not much), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Laine see some time on the top unit at times in the second half of the season.
Projected Stats
For those of you who were wondering where this write-up was considering the others were done well before now, I wanted to see Laine’s preseason action to get a sense of how well he had recovered to better take a crack at projecting his production. I was also planning on hedging against a significant injury; I just didn’t see that injury coming in the second game of the preseason.
So now we know he’s out for at least two months, potentially three. And let’s face it, a rehab over surgery approach is far from guaranteed to work too; it’s quite possible that he doesn’t recover as planned and winds up having surgery anyway, ending his season. But for the sake of this column, let’s say he comes back as planned.
At a minimum, he’s out until the beginning of December, meaning he’ll miss at least the first 23 games of the season. If Laine winds up missing three months, that number jumps to 37. I think they’ll opt to be cautious and hold him out that long and between that and the potential for another set of missed time due to his injury history, there’s a good chance his games played total checks in below 40.
With all the time he’s likely to miss, it’s fair to wonder if Laine will have much fantasy value at all. The overall offensive numbers are likely to underwhelm but at the same time, the production Laine could provide could be a lot better than the best of whatever’s left on the waiver wire at midseason.
With that in mind, if you’re in a league with IR slots, he’s certainly worth a speculative stash if he’s sitting in free agency. If you’re drafting, he’s worth a late-round flyer in a lot of formats. A well-timed IR stash or two can be a difference-maker in a late-season points push or having an extra above-average offensive winger in head-to-head formats. Laine could be one of those players this season.
GP: 38
Goals: 15
Assists: 15
Points: 30
+/-: -9
PIMS: 12
PPG: 3
GWG: 2
Shots: 105
