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After some injury-riddled years, Brendan Gallagher was largely healthy last season, putting up his highest point total since 2019-20 in the process. Will he be able to build off that performance in 2024-25?
2023-24
After seeing a fair bit of time in a top-six role the year before, Gallagher was more or less exclusively deployed in the bottom six to start the season. It didn’t seem to affect him too much out of the gate with nine points between October and November in 23 games. That type of production doesn’t exactly jump off the table – especially given a $6.5 million price tag – but it was also a step up from what Montreal had received from the bottom six in the past. If it could have been sustained, that would certainly have given the Habs a much-needed small boost offensively.
Alas, it wasn’t to be the case. The next two months were a struggle; he went all of December without scoring once while he ended that section with three goals, four assists, and a minor injury. Upon his return, things weren’t much better as Gallagher chipped in with just five points in 20 games between February and March.
However, things were much better for Gallagher down the stretch. He had four multi-point games in April, resulting in ten points in eight games to finish out the season. His line with Alex Newhook and Joel Armia was somewhat of an odd combination but all three finished up relatively strong, giving the coaching staff something to ponder heading into training camp.
Stats: 77 GP, 16-15-31, -24, 74 PIMS, 1 PPG, 2 GWG, 154 shots, 13:47 ATOI
5 Year Averages
(Stats for 2020-21 and 2021-22 are extrapolated to an 82-game rate.)
GP: 58
Goals: 15
Assists: 15
Points: 30
+/-: -2
PIMS: 48
PPG: 2
GWG: 2
Shots: 161
2024-25 Role
Where Gallagher fits in the lineup is in some question. The addition of Patrik Laine jumbles up the winger situation somewhat while Newhook’s likely return to the wing further complicates things. With Gallagher, Josh Anderson, and Joel Armia, the Habs have three wingers ranging from fairly pricey to expensive. And one of them is starting on the fourth line.
My pre-camp guess is that it won’t be Gallagher. With his strong finish to the season and the fact he doesn’t fit as well on something resembling a checking line like the fourth unit could be leads me to believe he’ll get the first crack on the third line alongside Christian Dvorak and one of either Joshua Roy, Newhook (if Roy moves to the second line), or Anderson (if Roy starts in the minors).
For someone who doesn’t have a great track record of recent power play success, the fact that Gallagher was often a staple on the second wave on the man advantage was irksome, to say the least. I still think there’s a chance he sees some time there. Assuming they have two groups with four forwards, all but four forwards will see regular power play time. Dvorak and Jake Evans probably won’t. Anderson isn’t a great power play threat with him being more dangerous coming off the rush. And if Armia is killing penalties (something Gallagher shouldn’t be doing), I could see them keeping him off the power play unless he’s on one of his hot streaks. If that happens, Gallagher will continue to receive cross-checks near the crease on the second group.
Projected Stats
Given Gallagher’s recent struggles and injury history, I’m often asked why he gets a full write-up in this series. Part of it is because he’s one of the highest-paid players on the team but part of it is that most of his production comes at even strength. And in deep leagues, that gives him a fantasy floor worth keeping an eye on.
Gallagher also is a bit of a stat-padder which gives him a leg up on some other depth options that might be available in those deep leagues. He has always been a volume shooter and while the rate is starting to come down with the decrease in ice time, he’s still good for around two shots on net per night which gives him a small boost in leagues with that category. He also gets penalty minutes at an above-average rate so for leagues with that as a positive category, that helps. (If it’s a negative stat though, you might want to stay away.)
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for some enthusiasm offensively, try this. Per MoneyPuck, Gallagher ranked fourth on the Habs last season in expected goals at 21.6. Even the year before when he missed 45 games, he was still at 10.7. If some of those slot chances start to go in at even a slightly higher rate, another 15-20-goal season (if he stays healthy) isn’t out of the question. In leagues going 350-deep or more, he should at least be on the radar. I’d lean toward making him a plug-and-play waiver wire pickup over a late-round pick but he could be someone to turn to with a reasonable floor for a bottom-six player.
GP: 70
Goals: 14
Assists: 13
Points: 27
+/-: -16
PIMS: 70
PPG: 1
GWG: 2
Shots: 143
