Last season, Jayden Struble was one of Montreal’s better stories, going from being an under-the-radar rookie in Laval to a regular on the back end for the Canadiens. Despite that, it doesn’t look great for him to break camp with the Habs as things stand.
While he had a solid college career, it’s fair to say his first full professional campaign didn’t start with much fanfare. He got a limited role to start with the Rocket as J-F Houle didn’t want to put him in too tough of a spot early on which made perfect sense. And to Struble’s credit, he did well, eventually earning a bit more ice time.
When injuries started hitting the Habs hard, Struble got the recall to the big club, which was earlier than most expected. He wasn’t supposed to play either with GM Kent Hughes later acknowledging that the original plan was for him to serve as the seventh defender for a few games to get a feel for the top level; a nice short-term pay bump (he’s on a two-way deal) probably didn’t hurt either.
But then Jordan Harris went down with an injury and Struble wound up going into the lineup much earlier than expected. Once again, he was understandably limited but as he did with Laval, Struble impressed, slowly earning more rope from the coaching staff.
Eventually, he did well enough that he earned a promotion to the second pairing as more injuries and general struggles came up. However, things didn’t go so well for Struble in that spot as teams started to break him down more often. That shouldn’t have been much of a surprise for someone still getting their feet wet at the top level and eventually, he was moved back to the third pairing where he remained as a regular for the final few months of the season.
Overall, Struble’s numbers didn’t jump off the table but were still decent with ten points in 56 games along with 53 blocks and 121 hits in just over 16 minutes a night. For a young third-pairing defender getting his first taste of NHL action, that’s a solid rookie showing and a performance that shouldn’t have him in any jeopardy of being demoted back to the minors.
And yet, it sure feels like that’s the likeliest outcome for Struble at this time. Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle, and David Savard probably aren’t going anywhere. Arber Xhekaj will eventually re-sign; so too will Justin Barron, whose waiver eligibility will probably secure him a spot to start the season. Jordan Harris is a speculative trade candidate but is still around. That’s six players right there and then there’s Lane Hutson, a player who many think will make the jump full-time. If so, there probably isn’t room for Struble to break camp with the Canadiens.
There’s also the matter of his struggles on the second pairing. Matheson will get the top minutes once again in all likelihood. If Guhle’s on his natural side, he slots into that second spot but, as things stand, that might not be likely to happen. Xhekaj didn’t play great in that role in the past either which might open up the spot for Hutson if he’s paired with Savard on that pairing. That places Xhekaj on the third pairing which, in my opinion, is the ideal spot for him but also closes the door on Struble as having him in a reserve role doesn’t make a lot of sense at this time.
It’s also worth noting that Struble’s waiver status could work against him as well. He’s 14 NHL games played away from being eligible for waivers. In the fall, the back end of rosters is often determined by waiver status, ensuring they keep as many players around as they can.
The fact his GP threshold is that close doesn’t help either from the standpoint of having to make a quick decision on him. Say there’s an injury in training camp (far from a crazy scenario) which could put him on the roster in a sixth or seventh role. Once he gets into 14 games, he can’t go to Laval without waivers so when the potentially injured player returns, then they’re stuck. Once again considering the waiver optimization that goes on in the fall, in that scenario, the likelier outcome is that he’d still go to Laval with someone else with a clearer waiver situation getting that spot.
It should also be acknowledged that it’s possible that they keep eight defencemen which could open up a roster spot for Struble. However, since it’s unlikely that he cracks the opening top six, having him sit in the press box most nights isn’t going to be viewed as the best option for his development so while it’s an option, it’s probably not one they’re going to want to take.
One of the good things about having depth is that it gives the Habs options and capable fill-ins for when injuries inevitably arise. But even so, I can’t help but feel bad about Struble’s situation. He didn’t do anything last year that would warrant him not making Montreal’s roster in training camp. But while things can change at any time if a trade arises, as things stand, it sure seems like that is the most probable outcome for the 22-year-old who will likely have to bide his time in Laval to start once again.