With cap space being at a premium heading into the trade deadline, the potential for bonus overage carrying over into next season grows, especially if Marc Bergevin wants to try to add to his roster again. With that in mind, here is a breakdown of Montreal’s bonus situation.
For this season, all Schedule A bonuses are prorated by a factor of [56/82] in terms of both the statistical target and the potential payout. On the money side, this means a bonus that would typically pay a player $212,500 only pays $145,122 this season.
Who has these bonuses? Alexander Romanov can earn one, Nick Suzuki two, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi up to four. Kotkaniemi also has a $1.65M Schedule B bonus in his deal and while the details of that aren’t known, they’re typically only given for elite production and he’s not providing that. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume he’s not going to hit that.
For those who aren’t familiar with the ‘A’ bonuses, here is a rundown of what qualifies:
Forwards
1) Top six in ATOI, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
2) 20 goals (14 this season with the proration factor)
3) 35 assists (24 this season with the proration factor)
4) 60 points (41 this season with the proration factor)
5) 0.73 points per game, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
6) Top three in plus/minus, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
7) Makes the All-Rookie Team
8) Selected to the All-Star Game (N/A this season)
9) All-Star Game MVP (N/A this season)
Suzuki and Kotkaniemi aren’t rookies so only the first six are in play.
Based on current stats, Suzuki is pegged to qualify for the ATOI and assist ones (narrowly) and if he goes on a hot streak down the stretch, the points per game one is potentially doable as well.
He’s eligible for two – one is a certainty (ATOI) with a reasonable chance of him hitting the second. That’s a guaranteed bonus cost of $145,122 with a reasonable chance of it being $290,244.
As for Kotkaniemi, he’s eighth among forwards in ATOI so far but his usage has gone up under Dominique Ducharme so it’s possible he gets to sixth. He’s behind in all of the offensive categories and is eighth in plus/minus. There’s plenty of variability with that one but as of right now, he probably isn’t in line to hit any of his ‘A’ bonuses.
Defencemen
1) Top four in ATOI, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
2) 10 goals (7 this season with the proration factor)
3) 25 assists (17 this season with the proration factor)
4) 40 points (27 this season with the proration factor)
5) 0.49 points per game, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
6) Top three in plus/minus, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
7) Top two in blocked shots, minimum of 42 games played (29 this season with the proration factor)
8) Makes the All-Rookie Team
9) Selected to the All-Star Game (N/A this season)
10) All-Star Game MVP (N/A this season)
Romanov sits fifth in ATOI with a gap of nearly 2:30 to make up to catch Joel Edmundson who is currently fourth. He’s definitely not hitting any of the offensive stats. He currently is third in plus/minus, though close enough to Shea Weber where he could be passed. Romanov is tied for third in blocks, one behind Weber in second. At this point, it’s only fair to assume he’ll hit one of those two, locking in $145,122 in the process.
Now, let’s briefly talk about Cole Caufield. He has games played bonuses in his deal this season as follows:
10 GP: $25,000 ($17,073 with the proration factor)
20 GP: $107,500 (73,415 with the proration factor)
Even if we factor in the proration rate (making 20 GP 14 instead), he probably isn’t reaching that one. Montreal only has 22 games left and Caufield isn’t making his Laval debut until Friday. He would have to be up by the middle of the month and play every game after that. Unless the composition of Montreal’s roster really changes between now and then, that probably isn’t happening.
Seven games (the prorated 10) is definitely a possibility though and Bergevin will need to factor that into his spending plan as a result.
Here’s a quick summary of everything if you’re just interested in the raw numbers:
Probable Bonus Cost: $290,122 (one A bonus for Suzuki, one for Romanov)
Potential Bonus Cost: $162,195 (one A bonus for Suzuki plus Caufield lower-tier GP bonus)
If all of those were hit, the Habs would need to be $452,317 under the salary cap at the end of the season to avoid an overage penalty. Right now, per CapFriendly, they project to be $100,394 under the cap at the end of the season. There’s a bit of room for wiggle room once everyone is healthy in terms of shuffling players back and forth but not to the extent where they can bank another $350,000 or so.
As a result, the Habs already appear to be heading towards a bonus overage penalty for next season which, with all of the players they need to re-sign and a flat salary cap, is hardly ideal. Eric Staal’s acquisition certainly should help Montreal down the stretch but unless there’s a move made to move some money out, his addition is going to cost the Habs on next season’s cap in the form of the bonus overage. When Bergevin is talking about how he’s capped out, this is definitely a notable part of the picture.