HabsWorld.net -- 

With what appears to be all of the new
unrestricted free agents in the fold and some of the RFA’s re-upping with the
team, let’s revisit the Habs’ cap situation.  As both Kyle Chipchura and
Guillaume Latendresse both signed for cheaper than most anticipated, the
situation isn’t quite as dire as it was this time a week ago.

Under
Contract

Based on who I’ve been projecting
will make the Habs all offseason, there’s now 21 players under contract. 
I’m going to take a couple of these players out (Pacioretty and S. Kostitsyn) and move them "to the bubble,"
which will be explained later.


Player
Cap Hit

Scott Gomez
7,357,143
Mike Cammalleri 6,000,000

Andrei Markov
5,750,000
Roman Hamrlik 5,500,000

Brian Gionta
5,000,000

Jaroslav Spacek
3,833,333

Andrei Kostitsyn
3,250,000
Hal Gill 2,250,000
Carey Price 2,200,000
Paul Mara 1,675,000
Travis Moen 1,500,000

Georges Laraque
1,500,000
Josh Gorges 1,100,000

Glen Metropolit
1,000,000
Ryan O’Byrne 941,667
Guillaume Latendresse 803,250

Jaroslav Halak
775,000
Maxim Lapierre 687,500
Kyle Chipchura
500,000

Total guaranteed (19):
51,622,893

So, how far are the Habs under the cap before
RFA’s?

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(51,622,893)
Space
Remaining
5,177,107

So we have up to 4 roster spots left to fill
and just over $5 million to do so.  Onto step two.

RFA’s

The Habs are down to just 3 RFA’s after both
Latendresse and Hamilton d-man Shawn Belle accepted their qualifying offers. 
Here’s who’s remaining and what their QO was.


Player
08-09 Salary
QO
Tomas Plekanec 1,800,000 1,800,000

Matt D’Agostini
508,000
558,800
Gregory Stewart 500,000 550,000

Totals (3):		 2,808,000
2,908,000

The deadline to simply accept qualifying offers
has now passed, so it’s safe to suggest that none of the above players will be
signing for the figure in the QO column.  Plekanec has filed for
arbitration, though the specific hearing date has not yet been determined. 
Going on some conservative estimates as always (since arbitration can really be
hard to predict), let’s estimate these 3 as having a combined cap hit of $4.25
million and add that total into the already signed column.

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(55,872,893)
Space
Remaining
927,107

So now we’re down to less than $1 million under
the cap, and only 22 guys on the roster – in the past, the Habs have often liked
to carry 23. 

On the
Bubble

There’s a few players that have been discussed
as possibilities to make the roster but haven’t been listed just yet. 
Let’s get them out of the way next:


Player
Cap Hit
Max
Pacioretty
910,000
Yannick Weber 875,000

Sergei Kostitsyn
816,667

As it stands, it’s doubtful that any of these
players could make the opening night roster solely for cap reasons.  But,
like it seems with GM Bob Gainey with regards to the UFA signings, I’m not done
yet.

Bonus
Cushion

This year (and in every other post-lockout year
except for 08-09), teams are allowed to exceed the cap by up to 7.5% based on
potential performance bonuses.  Only 3 players noted above have bonuses in
their deals, Carey Price, Yannick Weber, and Sergei Kostitsyn.  For
simplicity purposes, let’s look at Price alone first.

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(55,872,893)
Bonus
Cushion		 1,350,000

Max Space Remaining
2,277,107

With this, this would give the Habs enough
space to add a 23rd player to the roster and still have some room under the cap.  Let’s do so for each of the 3
bubble players with bonuses, as each situation is slightly different. 
Note: To get the space remaining without utilizing the bonus cushion, simply
subtract the cushion from the max space remaining column.

For Max Pacioretty making the team:

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(56,782,893)
Bonus
Cushion		 1,350,000

Max Space Remaining
1,367,107

For Yannick Weber making the team:

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(56,747,893)
Bonus
Cushion		 1,612,500

Max Space Remaining
1,664,607

For Sergei Kostitsyn making the team:

Salary
Cap		 56,800,000

Already Signed
(56,689,560)
Bonus
Cushion		 1,615,000

Space Remaining
1,725,440

Now the bonus cushion isn’t all good.  For
whatever amount you exceed the cap using the cushion, you’re charged for it the
following season provided the players actually reached their bonuses.  Last
year, Price hit all of his bonuses, Pacioretty hit his small one (and has no
others in the final 2 years of his contract), S. Kostitsyn
hit all but $50,000, while Weber missed all of his by only playing in a handful
of games. 

What does this all mean?  Although the RFA deals thus far are a pleasant
surprise, the Habs
are far from out of the woods just yet, especially if they continue to insist on
throwing millions away on a 23rd roster spot.  There’s no guarantee either that Georges Laraque will be LTIR-eligible despite his chronic back issues, and with the cap
expected to drop next season, deferring cap hits over via the bonus cushion is
certainly not ideal as well.  As a result, I still say something needs to
happen in terms of player movement in order to bring the cap situation to
something more manageable unless the team goes with a roster size of 22; if so,
things may work out in the end.

Of course, this will all change as soon as another move is made, so when that
happens, watch for updates to these projections.